Research company also sees 5G handset shipments starting in 2020 and rising to 300 million by 2025.
5G connections are set to reach 690 million by 2025, with 5G handset shipments also expected to rise to 300 million by this point according to latest predictions from Strategy Analytics.
The research company explained that the 690-million figure relates to what it calls “user-linked subscriptions” and does not include industrial machine-to-machine connections.
“So we are including connections for which there is an individual user end-point (either B2C or B2B), such as for consumer electronics products, but does not include vertical/industrial applications,” explained Phil Kendall, executive director at Strategy Analytics.
This definition includes handsets; modem and embedded connections in PCs/notebooks/laptops; tablets; and connections in the consumer electronics category including consumer wearables, connected cars and more.
In June, Ovum forecast that global 5G subscriptions would reach 24 million by the end of 2021 but was referring only to broadband connections.
Strategy Analytics also warned that fragmentation is highly likely as operators in different regions pursue different 5G paths. “Significant work is needed to marry the appeal of a unified early 5G standard with the longer term need to support diverse market requirements,” the company said.
Senior analyst Guang Yang noted that 5G network plans have developed well in 2016, “driving an ecosystem which will put 7% of mobile connections on 5G networks by 2025.”
“China’s 2020 5G launch plans brings it closer to early adopters in the U.S., South Korea and Japan, [which] are speeding up progress to meet the broadband access demands from the Olympic Games and competition of non-traditional players. In contrast, European operators are currently paying more attention to opportunities in IoT,” Yang said.
In terms of handset sales, Strategy Analytics director Ken Hyers said the first commercial 5G handsets would appear in small numbers in 2020 in South Korea and Japan. In 2021, more launches are then expected in the U.S., the UK, Sweden and the UAE with commercial sales set to exceed 300 million by 2025.
“By 2022 tens of millions of 5G handsets will be sold, and as a proportion of total handset sales will reach low single digit percentages,” Hyers said.
Senior analyst Ville-Petteri Ukonaho also pointed out that the first commercial 5G handsets “will likely come with very high price tags.”
“While the first trial 5G handsets in 2018 are expected to have teething problems, including short battery life, no 4G handover or unstable connectivity, by 2020 these issues will be largely resolved,” Ukonaho added.
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